Looking beyond mean trends of environmental change

During my first week in Dublin, Ireland, I was more shocked by the countless sunny-rainy shifts within one single day than its natural beauty, although I had been warned of its fickle weather in advance. That was something totally new to me. Born and raised in a small inland town in North China, I had grown accustomed to taking for granted that a whole sunny day could be prophesised by bright morning sunlight through the window. Then I started to imagine that, if fitting a curve to the weather, the curve of my birth village would surely be much smoother than Dublin, even though the former has four much more distinct seasons. But, at that moment, I had neither realized that this thought actually reflected the difference in the temporal autocorrelation of environmental conditions in the two places nor how this could be linked to the dynamics and stability of ecosystems.

Read Marvin’s full post on the Nature Ecology & Evolution blog.

This post is based on the paper Yang et al. (2019) ‘The predictability of ecological stability in a noisy world.’ Nature Ecology & Evolution

Header photo by Brocken Inaglory on Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 3.0)

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